Content 1 English

14 May 2013:	Dansk
'Power to Heat' Presentation in Salzburg The ERA Net workshop was a part of the Smart Grids Week in Salzburg 13th to 17th May 2013. Here is my presentation in an English version

8 May 2013:
No Plans for a Danish Capacity Market My comments from 9th January 2013 called for an open Danish strategy for the future power plant capacity. On the 22nd March 2013 the Energinet.dk CEO, Peder Østermark Andreasen, states in an article (in Danish) that a capacity market in Denmark would be an unnecessary additional cost to electricity consumers.

8 May 2013:
50 Years' Blackout Lessons Blackout investigation reports have been important sources of improved operating security of power systems. Read here about lessons learned and ignored.

12 April 2013:

Power to Heat - An IKEM Workshop in Berlin

The Institute for Climate Protection, Energy and Mobility, IKEM, in Berlin held a workshop, Power to Heat, on 10 April 2013. It was the purpose of the workshop to exchange experience among experts with political, theoretical and practical background on the possible interaction between heat and electricity sectors in order to achieve the best possible integration of renewable energy sources.

Here is my presentation (in German)

7 April 2013:
New Simulation Model of the German Power System A simulation tool was developed for a client. It simulates German electricity generation from 2010 to 2020 hour by hour based on a merit order list. More information here

31 March 2013:
Statistical Survey 2012 Observations for 2012: - The main flow of electricity in Europe was from north to south - Very low Nordic and German spot prices - Closely related spot prices in Denmark and Germany - Record low thermal production in Denmark - Wind power performance analysed for 6 European countries Read more in the Statistical Survey 2012

21 February 2013:
ENTSO-E Views on Capacity Mecanisms ENTSO-E (the European Network of Transmissions System Operators for Electricity) has published an interesting response paper to an EC public consultation on "generation adequacy, capacity mechanisms and the internal market in electricity". Read more here

9 January 2013:
A Game on Security of Supply Will there be sufficient power plant capacity in Denmark in the future? The Danish Energy Association says no. The Danish system operator, Energinet.dk, is confident that new interconnectors can replace domestic power plants. Read more here

25 December 2012:

A New Study on Wind Turbine Performance

The Renewable Energy Foundation has published a new study on wind farm performance in The UK and Denmark. The study was made by Professor Gordon Hughes. The main finding is a surprisingly high decline in energy output as the turbines get older, particular in the UK. Maintenance policy and immature technology may have contributed to the results.

See more here

17 December 2012:
A New Interpretation of Security of Supply On the 28th November 2012 the German Government adopted an order on the disconnection of large electricity consumers within the framework of intelligent grids. The reason is the still more frequent cases of strained conditions on the German transmission grids caused by the "Energiewende". See more here

22 November 2012:
PV can Reduce Overflow and Fuel Consumption The Government has put a brake on the photovoltaic (PV) development in Denmark. I have analysed the interaction between PV, wind and CHP. A certain share of PV seems to reduce the imbalances, caused by wind power. From an operational point of view the annual wind energy should be about three times the PV energy. See the results here

2 November 2012:

Will Wind and PV displace CHP?

In 2001 CHP supplied 60% of Denmark's electricity consumption. In 2020 wind power is supposed to supply 50%. CHP plants and wind farm are already competing for sale of electricity. A boom in PV may add to the competition. The flexibility of the CHP systems is decisive for the RES integration. What will be the future role of CHP?

Here is an English version of my presentation
at the annual meeting of the Danish District Heating Association 2012

20 October 2012:
Data Collection Updated with 3rd Quarter 2012 From 2012 the collection of hourly time series includes wind power output and other relevant data from Denmark, Germany, Republic of Ireland, Great Britain, France and Spain. Download data here

22 September 2012:

Modest Capacity Factor Degradation for Wind Turbines in Denmark

In some countries it has been observed that the capacity factor for wind tubines declines up to 2% per year. Wear and tear is asumed to be the cause. Even wind turbines in Denmark have declining capacity factors, but at a much more modest level. The main reason seems to be changing wind conditions. 3,215 onshore turbines installed between 1992 and 2001 have been analysed.

See the results here

9 September 2012:

A Vision for the German Power System in 2050

Germany has ambitious plans for the use of renwable energy. The German Energy Agency (dena) has published a new study on the integration of renewable energy souces in Germany. The study is based on guiding scenarios published by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).

Read about a Germany with 86% renewable electricity here
The new dena study (in German)
Guiding Scenarios 2010 (in German with an English summary on page 31-60)

9 September 2012:
The Worlds Biggest Blackout On 30 July 2012 and again on the following day large grid disturbances occurred in India. AC grids are complex systems and especially large AC grids are vulnerable. In India local overloads started cascading outages affecting up to 620 million people. See the report of the enquiry committee

1 September 2012:

DOE Report on Best Practices in Wind Power Integration

Two of nine examples of excellence provided by Energinet.dk.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has taken the remarkable initiative to produce a survey on the state-of-art in wind power integration. The survey includes 72% of installed wind capacity in the world. Wind power has changed the operational conditions and the system operators have already done considerable development efforts in order to maintain normal system security.

See my presentation of the report and DOE's full report

14 June 2012:

A Danish CHP System with Seasonal Energy Storage

Energy storage is necessary for efficient utilisation of high shares of wind and solar power. The combination with CHP produces too much electricity during the cold seasons and too litte during the summer. At Brædstrup in Jutland a heat supply system with CHP, solar panels, hot water tanks and a borehole storage for seasonal variations is now in full operation.

See the introduction

11 June 2012:
The San Diego Blackout 8 September 2011 caused by carelessness The Ferc/Nerc investigation report demonstrates that the system collapse was caused by insufficient planning tools, inadequate situational awareness and uncoordinated relay settings. The recommendations after the blackout in 2003 seem to have been negelected. Here is my comment and here is Ferc/Nerc's full investigation report

9 May 2012:
Grid Performance Report from the German Grid Agency The German Federal Grid Agency has issued a report on the supply situation for electricity and gas during the winter season 2011/12. Such reports are informative, but unfortunately rare. Here is my translation of the summary and here is the full report (in German)

1 May 2012:

New Evidence on Strained German Grids

In a letter to the European Commissioner for Energy, Günther Oettinger, the presiden of ENTSO-E, Daniel Dobbeni, has expressed concern about security of power system operation in Europe.
Besides, additional data from the 50Hertz area throws new light on the grid conditions in Germany in the first quarter of 2012.

See my additional comment
Here is the letter and the attached briefing paper

30 April 2012:
Study to Look at Interconnector between UK and Denmark Energinet.dk has announced that a study of an interconnector between UK and Denmark will start immediately. Read more at Energinet.dk

15 April 2012:
Download British System Prices British system prices for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are now available on the download page. The new data includes System Sell Price (SSP) and System Buy Price (SBP) in £/MWh (average values per hour). Go to download page

14 April 2012:

Frequent Curtailments of Wind Power in Germany

Press reports on recent critical grid conditions in Germany roused my curiosity for more information. Available data indicates frequent stressed situations with curtailment of wind power. The risk of a blackout is taken seriously in Germany. A report from 2011 has evaluated the possible consequences and recommends actions for improving the resilience of vital infrastructure sectors. Germany is being prepared for future blackouts. . . . . Read more

29 March 2012:
IEA Flexibility Index - An Incomplete Yardstick The International Energy Agency (IEA) has presented a method for the assessment of the amount of wind energy which can be handled by a power system. Under the present conditions Denmark should be able to absorb 63% wind energy. The initiative is exciting but the method is still incomplete. . . . . . Read more

22 March 2012:
German PV installation running wild In 2011 7.5 GW PV systems were installed in Germany or 3 times as much as expected. Now the Federal Government pulls the brake. Read more

17 March 2012:
The Unknown Flexibility of District Heating See the English version of my presentation at the seminar in the Danish District Energy Development Center on 5 March 2012:

9 February 2012:

Wind Power and Spot Markets in 2011

Observations for 2011:
- A wet summer and a German nuclear moratorium tilted the energy balance
- The new balance reversed the electricity transit in Denmark
- Denmark and Germany is a common market block with 9% wind energy
- Temporary capacity cuts limits the access to cross border trade
- Aggregated wind power from 5 countries cannot create a smooth supply

Read more in the Statistical Survey 2011

12 January 2012:
Article on CHP Business Opportunities My article on the potential flexibility of the CHP systems has now been published by Euroheat & Power (IV/2011). See the English version here.

9 January 2012:
German Network Agency opens debate on smart grids The German Bundesnetzagentur (The Federal Network Agency) has published a 50 page paper (in German) with interesting views on smart grids. The agency calls for a debate. See my contribution to the debate here.

12th December 2011:
Scenarios for a national German grid development plan For the first time ever a national grid development plan will be prepared jointly by the four German grid operators. Bundesnetzagentur (The Federal Network Agency) recently approved a framework of scenarios for the planning. The plan must be ready by June next year. Find an overview of the scenarios here.

1st December 2011:
New types of data ready for download The download section is currently being extended. Time series on Photovoltaic (PV) production and offshore wind are now available. PV has gained a significant volume in Germany and it is increasingly important to understand the different variabilities of PV an wind power. Find the data in the download section.

21th November 2011:
Denmark goes for Smart Grids The Danish Ministry for Climate, Energy and Building has presented its Smart Grid intentions in a report: "Main Report - The Smart Grid Network's recommendations". The recommendations are quite sensible, but it is debatable if the increasing risk of power failures has been properly addressed. See my comments with links to the documents.

31th October 2011:
New Estimates on Cost of Electricity Production Only poor information is available on the cost of electricity production. Therefore Colin Gibson's new probabilistic approach is a much needed contribution. A spreadsheet with data and macros is available, so those who disagree with Colin Gibson can easily make their own versions. See my summary and comment with link to the documents.

11th October 2011:
German Nuclear Stop Pressing Electricity Security Germany has stopped the operation of 8 GW nuclear power. Further 14 GW nuclear power will be decommissioned until 2022. The maximum electricity demand is about 80 GW. How will the nuclear power be replaced? See my comment.

10th October 2011:
Time series for internaional comparisons Collecting time series for international comparisons of wind power integrations can be quite problematic. A selection of the time series used in my analyses is availale here.

9th September 2011:

Extensive Power Outage in USA

Thursday evening routine works on the substation Hassayampa in Arizona caused disconnection of a 500 kV line to California. After cascading outages several millions in Arizona, Mexico and California, particularly San Diego, lost power. The electricity supply was reestablished during Friday morning.
A survey of the event will be presented here when sufficient details are available.

28th August 2011:
Import of gas and security of supply in the UK Howard Rogers from The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies challenges in an excellent report the rosy expectations on the future energy supply in the UK. The increasing dependency on imported gas is not only a British problem, but a problem to Western Europe. It has a worrying similarity with the oil dependency prior to 1973. Read more

12th August 2011:
Improved Nordic Energy Balance The water level in the Norwegian hydro storages is now close to be normal for this time of the year. The improvement is mainly due to the heavy rainfall in 2011. The spot price level has fallen during the same priod. Denmark and Germany have no longer significantly lower spot prices than Norway and Sweden. Read more.

26th June 2011:

Wind Power Survey extended with British data

Time series for British wind power in 2010 have been downloaded from Elexon. This allows a desirable extension of the wind power surveys for Denmark, Germany and Ireland.
The results indicate that wind power in Ireland and Great Britain have simulaneous variations in the same way as wind power Denmark and Germany.

26th April 2011:

Wind power creates export of electricity

Danish wind energy is not supposed to be exported. However, it cannot be refused that wind power and export of electricity are closely related.
Again in 2010 Danish interconnectors had poor availability. Furthermore the Norwegian hydro production was much lower than in a normal year.

Read more in Statistical Survey 2010.

The survey also includes wind power data from Germany and Ireland.

21st April 2011:

Low content in Scandinavian hydro storages

The water level is very low in the Norwegian and Swedish hydro storages this year. The cause is an increasing consumption of electricity and a low inflow of water in 2010.

Norway is saving water by a considerable import of electricity. The water level is increasing again from the middle of April 2011.

2nd January 2011:

District heating can smooth out wind power variations

'Smart Grid' is often used as a magic word in explanations on wind power integration. However, some dilemmas deserve a more thorough discussion.
In Denmark wind power and CHP (combined heat and power) are competing for the electricity demand. The competition may threaten the existence of small CHP schemes with vulnerable economy.
The district heating systems also include opportunities for storing energy and for utilizing overflow electricity in a useful way. There are new business opportunities for CHP companies by a stronger engagement in the electricity market.
I have tried to demonstrate the possibilities in a new report.
The Danih magazine "Fjernvarmen" has published my results. See my English version.

10th December 2010:

Poor wind on 7th December

Capacity shortage and high spot prices were observed in several countries on 7th December. There has been some interest for the wind power contribution during the afternoon peak. Here are some preliminary figures:

	Production	Share of capacity
Denmark	142 MW	4%
Germany	779 MW	3%
Great Britain	133 MW	6%
Ireland	298 MW	21%

My previous analyses indicate that periods with high electricity consumption and low winds are typical for the month of December

7th December 2010:

More expensive electricity in 2011

In East Denmark the spot price of electricity today climbed to a new record and the media predict increased electricity prices in 2011. What is going on?
See my guess here.

22nd October 2010:

Interview on Nuclear Power in Denmark

Could the present power system be extended by nuclear power?
Julie Søgaard from Radio Denmark asked me this surprising question..
Read my answer here.

29th July 2010:

Missing data transparency in the UK electricity industry

Wind power integration is an important issue in the UK. As a contribution to the debate Renewable Energy Foundation (REF) has puiblished a book with five of my recent papers.
My work is interesting in the UK because easy access to time series with Danish market data made analyses of the impact of wind power possible. This is not the case in the UK.
REF therefore connected the launch of the book with an initiative for data transparency in the electricity industry in the UK.
See: Renewable Energy Foundation, London
Danish data are available at Energinet.dk's web site
Links to the five papers: Recent publications

24th May 2010:

EWIS report on wind power integration in Europe 2015

The European Wind Integration Study has published a path breaking report. Large scale analyses for nearly 30 European countries have been made. The analyses include market performance, grid flows and system security for the year 2015.
The installed wind power is assumed to grow from about 70 GW in 2008 to about 140 GW in 2015 causing high flows and increased congestion in the grid. A series of technical measures have been planned.
See: Comment on the EWIS report
See: EWIS Final Report 2010.

13th May 2010:

Somewhere the wind must be blowing

Aggregating wind power for a large geographical area results in a more smooth production. In the UK it is widely believed that UK is so large that a certain minimum production from dispersed wind power plants can always be counted on.
Unfortunately time series for wind power output have not been published in the UK in the same way as in Denmark and Germany. Therefore I have used Danish and German data in order to shed light on the matter for a geographic area of similar extent as the UK.
See my article in New Power UK, March 2010

14th April 2010:

The European Court provides better access to Swedish transmission grid

The European Commission has adopted a decision rendering legally binding commitments offered by Svenska Kraftnät that will increase trade in electricity within Sweden and between Sweden and neighbouring countries. The improvements must be efective by 1 November 2011 at the latest.
Read more here

30th March 2010:

Continued debate on CEPOS report

The authors of the CEESA report have responded to my criticism.
See the CEESA comment
The new comment repeats that Danish power plants could have reduced production during periods with high wind power output and that the export therefore was competitive thermal power.
On the other side it remains unchallenged that the net export of electricity reflects the irregular variations of the wind power while the thermal power plants rather follow the daily cycles of electricity consumption. This observation indicates that the export is highly influenced by wind power.
The export of electricity cannot be traced objectively. Therefore it is strange that a complete rejection of one of the two interpretations is so important. One reason could be that the market value of export can be calculated and compared with the cost of wind energy.
I must add that nothing in the new comment changes my criticism of the professional quality of the first CEESA report.
See the other references below

21st March 2010:

Wind Power and Electricity Markets in 2009

My Spot Price Study last year for Renewable Energy Foundation was based on data surveys for the years 2006 to 2008. The series has now been extended by a data survey 2009.
See: Overview
See: Statistical Survey 2009.

5th March 2010:

Debate on CEPOS report

Last year the Danish Center for Political Studies (CEPOS) published the report Wind Energy – The case of Denmark. The report points out that a main element of the praised Danish integration of wind power is leaving absorbtion of wind power variability to larger neighbouring countries.
Questioning the Danish myth on outstanding integration of wind power causes anger.
The report Danish Wind Power – Export and Cost was published by Aalborg University, financed by CEESA and signed by a number of well-known Danish energy experts. Based on poor professional evidence the CEESA report categorically rejects the analyses and conclusions of the CEPOS-report and particularly my calculation of wind energy export.
See my answer: Wind Power Variations are Exported.
The CEESA report: Danish Wind Power – Export and Cost
The CEPOS report: Wind Energy - The Case of Denmark

10th January 2010:

Wind Power and CHP: Conflict or Interaction?

It is a political agreement that wind energy must contribute significantly to increased use of renewable energy in Denmark. However, this policy creates a dilemma because the electricity demand in Denmark is insufficient for both wind power and CHP. Wind power and combined heat and power (CHP) make sense only together with a corresponding electricity demand.
Using electricity for heating is the logical solution, but it was for many years a taboo in Denmark.
However, wind power and CHP cannot both be operated efficiently in the future unless water for district heating systems can be heated by electricity. This view has gradually won general support. I also want to be able to quantify the effects of a properly coordinated operation of wind power and CHP in Denmark.
See wind power integration.

4th December 2009:

Challenges of Climate Change

Reduction of carbon emission to the atmosphere has become a highly prioritized national and international target. It is incredible that we feel so rich and secure that our essential concern relates to long term climate changes. This condition cannot last. More urgent global problems will set another agenda long before the climate change is perceptible.
Several companies, municipalities and islands have declared themselves to be carbon neutral because they have purchased carbon free energy. But providing carbon free energy is only a part of the solution. The heavy problems have been pushed on somebody else.
The electricity system must also provide a permanent balance between consumption and generation and it must supply heat for the large number of Danish district heating systems.
In 2025 Denmark is supposed to have twice the present wind energy corresponding to half of the electricity consumption. Implementing the necessary transition of the power system will be an exciting development process aiming at securing both electricity and heat supply and minimizing the waste of wind energy.
Read my note om 50% wind energy - Options and challenges

30th November 2009:

New Power cable between Norway and Denmark

Energinet.dk announces:
"Energinet.dk and Statnett - the transmission system operators in Denmark and Norway - have decided to build a new power cable between the two countries.
The Skagerrak 4 cable, as it is called, will have a capacity of 700 MW and is expected to be commissioned in 2014 provided the cable is given the seal of approval by the energy ministers of the two countries and the necessary authority approvals are obtained."
See the full text of the press release from Energinet.dk.

10th November 2009:

E.ON is selling its transmission grid to TenneT

The German energy company, E.ON, announces that it is selling its EHV transmission company, Transpower, to the Dutch transmission system operator, TenneT. The sale meets part of demands from EU and releases E.ON from suspicion of discrimination of market participants due to ownership of both power stations and transmission grids.
See the announcement from E.ON.

15th October 2009:

Agreement between European TSOs on market coupling

The association of European power system operators, ENTSOE, announces that an agreement on market coupling principles for the day-ahead markets has been made between system operators in North and Central Europe. The agreement will pave the way for an efficient use of the interconnection capacity, coordinated price signals and a more efficient system operation.
See the announcement from ENTSOE and the joint declaration.

6th October 2009:

EU test of Swedish congestion management

Danish Energy Association has filed a complaint against Svenska Kraftnät (Swedish system operator) with the EU Commission over limitations in the capacity of the interconnectors between Sweden and Denmark. After negotiations with Svenska Kraftnät the Commission has published a proposal accepting the Danish views. The proposal is good news for Danish electricity consumers.
See the announcement from the EU Commission.

17th September 2009:

Liberal party to reduce support for wind

The liberal spokesman on climate and energy, Lars Christian Lilleholt, will gradually reduce the support for wind turbines and replaced it by more money for the development of hydrogen, biogas and solar energy.
See announcement from the party's web side

15th September 2009:

CEPOS: The hidden cost of wind energy

The production of wind energy in Denmark is about 20% of the electricity demand, but due to the intermittency of wind power most wind energy has been exported, says the Danish Center for Political Studies (CEPOS), and the wind energy utilised in Denmark is unreasonably expensive to Danish consumers.
See the Heritage Foundation or the full report (3 MB)

11th September 2009:

EcoGrid.dk at Nordic Wind Power Conference 2009

EcoGrid.dk is a large scale project for the integration of wind power. Phase 1 of the project was terminated with a workshop in May 2009 at Energinet.dk. The most important messages were presented by Thomas Ackermann on NWPC'2009.
See Thomas Ackermann's presentation, a summary paper or the project web site

10th September 2009:

The Spot Price Study at NWPC'2009

The spot price study was made earlier this year for the Renewable Energy Foundation (read more here). The main results were shown at the conference, NWPC'2009, at Bornholm (a Danish island in the Baltic Sea) on the 10th and 11th September 2009. It was emphasized, that the capacities of the interconnectors during the 3 years, which have been analysed, for technical or other reasons are much below the nominal values. The problem can hurt the future utilisation of wind power.
See the paper and the presentation for NWPC'2009

4th August, 2009:

Inefficient Competition in Energy Markets in Germany

In a comprehensive report the German Monopoly Commission points out that competition in the energy markets has serious shortcomings. This is particularly the case for the supply side and for the wholesale markets. The commission is advisor to the German government on competition and market issues.
The report recommends several improvements, including systematic market monitoring, complete market transparency to an independent market monitoring body and implicit auctions for congestion management of interconnections.
See the press release in German

2nd July, 2009:

German TSOs and EEX to improve transparency

The four German TSOs and the European Energy Exchange, EEX, will publish generation and consumption data in order to increase transparency of the wholesale electricity market.
See the press release (page 1 and 2 in German, page 3 and 4 in English)

1st July, 2009:

Nordel activities transferred to ENTSO-E

Since 1963 Nordel has been the essential driving force in a coordinated development of Nordic power systems and electricity markets. The structure of Nordel has changed, when needed. Since 1998 the members were the Nordic TSOs. As from 1st July 2009 all activities have been transferred to the European association of TSOs, ENTSO-E.
Read more on the Nordel web site (available the rest of 2009) or go to ENTSO-E.

14th May, 2009:

Transparency in Britain's energy market wanted

Policy Exchange in London has published a paper "Knowledge is power", to help alleviate the crisis of confidence in Britain's liberalised energy market. The paper is particularly directed to the end-user market of electricity.
See http://www.policyexchange.org.uk/publications/publication.cgi?id=117

12th May, 2009:

The UK power system must be prepared for large scale wind power

Those who claim that Denmark skilfully has integrated 20% wind energy in the electricity supply system are exaggerating. It is more accurate to say that Denmark and Germany as an entity has integrated 7% wind energy. This is one of the surprising results of an examination of Danish and German data form the years 2006 to 2008.
The Danish achievements have mainly been possible due to dynamic international markets and strong interconnections to large neighbouring countries.
Therefore Renewable Energy Foundation has pointed out that Britain cannot just proceed in the wake of the Danish wind power development. An ambitious program for British wind power must be accompanied by new measures for maintaining power system balance and security.
Read more...

21st April, 2009:

Preparation for a power cable between Denmark and the Netherlands

The transmission system operators in Denmark and the Netherlands, Energinet.dk and TenneT, have entered into a formal agreement on continued preparations for an electric interconnection between the two countries.
Read the Energinet.dk press release.

9th March, 2009:

Electric cars and heat pumps can contribute to the 2020 targets

Energinet.dk has published the analysis "Efficient utilisation of electric wind energy in Denmark - Interaction between wind power, heat pumps and electric cars."
Read more at Energinet.dk's web site.

Opdateret d. 19.5.2013