|7 April 2013:|
New Simulation Tool Developed
There is a great interest in following the German power sector. The current changes in Germany ("Die Energiewende") require special tools for the evaluation of the prospects for the next few years.
A Dispatch Model of German Power Production
A residual load is created by subtracting wind and PV from the consumption.
The residual load has a rather irregular variation which is smoothed by available pump storage capacity.
The dispatchable capacity is used for covering the resulting residual load in accordance with the merit order list.
Extreme cases with electricity overflow or shortage may occur. Such cases are assumed balanced by export and import. The model does not identify or analyze congestion problems in the grid.
Several Data Sources
It has been a time consuming puzzle to evaluate all these sources and to extract a consistent set of data for use in the model. The different sources reflect an increased uncertainty due to the German energy transition.
Selecting Main Results
For each year a mean marginal cost indicates the electricity price level. Price volatility is indicated by a standard deviation.
Other results for each year are:
For each category of dispatchable capacity the following tables have been selected:
Opportunities for further Development
The model itself has interesting potentials for improvements and extensions which will be discussed with the client in due course.
Opdateret d. 8.4.2013